The Vegas 3: Week 13

Find out who to bet, and how in this week’s Vegas 3

Don’t listen to your mom. Gambling is healthy and wholesome. Here at OTL, we advocate putting your hard earned money straight into a sports book. We’ll even give you the lowdown on who to bet, and how.


By Matthew Jarecki

Key Terms

Moneyline – Who will win the game outright.

Spread – How many points a team will lose or win by. -3 means a team is favored by 3 points, while +3 means a team is favored to lose by three. When betting the spread, you are betting on a team to win or lose by more or less than Vegas says.

Parlay – Combining 2 or more bets to increase the total payout. Parlay’s are risky, because all bets must win in order to win the parlay.


The Parlay:

parlay-week-13

As always, we’re starting out with our 3 team, low risk, moneyline parlay. We combined 3 sure-fire moneyline bets, which would individually give you less than a 1 to 1 return, to instead give you a little more than a 1 to 1 return. As a result, you can count on doubling your money by the end of the week. Here’s why we chose these games to bet. Winners are in bold.

Houston Texans at Green Bay Packers: Ahh yes, we finally have Aaron Rodgers back. After several weeks of even the smartest football people I know overreacting, everyone came to their senses last week and realized he’s not the problem in Green Bay. Now, I’m not telling you guys that this is a Super Bowl caliber team. In fact I think this team has some major holes defensively, and still needs to establish a running game before we even talk about playoff wins. But for this week, we have Mike Mccarthy and Aaron Rodgers at home versus Bill O’Brien and Brock Osweiler. That’s a total mismatch.Meanwhile, the Texans defense, which has carried them to wins this year, is surprisingly bad on the road this year. They’ve given up an average of 26.5 points per game on the road to the likes of Jacoby Brisset, Sam Bradford, Trevor Siemian, and Blake Bortles. That ain’t good, folks. Green Bay will win comfortably, and all you “Aaron Rodgers isn’t the same guy” people will crawl back into your holes until his next bad game.

Carolina Panthers at Seattle Seahawks: It’s over. It’s done. Carolina isn’t going to make that late season push I thought they could make. Cam is looking for a big play every down, sitting in the pocket just long enough for it to come crashing down on him. As Newton regresses back to the “all talent” player he came out of college as, Carolina’s playoff hopes diminish, and they’ll ultimately be put to rest this week against a ferocious Seahawks team. Despite the embarrassing loss in Tampa Bay last week, the Hawks are one of the two best teams in the NFC, and they’ll be ready to bounce back at home against Carolina’s weak offensive line and secondary. Here’s the key stat in this game: Seattle has allowed just 18 point per game at home on their way to a 5-0 record at CenturyLink Field. Carolina, meanwhile, is 1-4 on the road, having only beat the dismal Rams. Carolina’s tumble continues.

Miami Dolphins at Baltimore Ravens: I’ve been telling you that Miami is a fake-good team for weeks now, and I’ve had to eat my words while I wait for them to be exposed. Now, to my extreme satisfaction, they’ll show you their true colors this week, on their way to possibly losing out their last 5 games. Yeah, I said it. But before I get into this game, I should apologize to Adam Gase, who’s coaching ability I’ve questioned all year based on his age and lack of head coaching experience. He’s balled out as the leader of this group, and he’s helped Tannehill look like a real quarterback during Miami’s 6 game winning streak. Props. As for this game, though, Baltimore has the advantage for 3 reasons. 1. Harbough/Flacco is still the better coach/quarterback duo than Gase/Tannehill. 2. Baltimore is the 2nd best rushing defense in the league, allowing just 3.4 yards per carry. Miami’s offense literally “runs” through Jay Ajayi, and he’ll be stifled this week. 3. Baltimore has given up an average of just 14 points per game at home this year. That’s a dominant defense, and I don’t think Tannehill is ready for it.


The Spread:

spread-week-13

Betting the spread is not about who will win the game, it’s about who will cover. This week, we only felt that one team had a good enough probability of covering their respective spread to bet them: the Indianapolis Colts

Indianapolis Colts at New York Jets: It’s a good day when you get Andrew Luck – fighting for a playoff birth – favored by only a point and a half over a Jets team led by Ryan Fitzpatrick. The Jets do one thing well – stop the run – but unfortunately for them, the Colts will be airing it out this week against that flat out bad Jets secondary. Sure, the Jets have the better overall roster in this one, but as we’ve seen time and time again, when the quarterback mismatch is this big, rosters don’t matter. Indy wins by a touchdown against a team with nothing left to play for.

 

 


High-Risk, Low-Risk Moneylines:

moneyline-week-13We like to put a large portion of our money into a low-risk moneyline bet (which will not payout much), and a small portion of our money into a high-risk moneyline bet (which will payout well). This week we’re investing a lot in the New England Patriots, and a little in the Jacksonville Jaguars

LA Rams at New England Patriots: If you’ve been following the Vegas 3 this season, and you’ve put your money on our low risk moneyline bets, you’re doing pretty well by now. I give all the credit in the world to Tom Brady and Bill Belichick, who’ve been featured more than any other coach/quarterback duo. The reason is simple: they’re the best duo in the league, and it’s not debatable. This week they’ll be at home against an LA team traveling across country. That in itself is a tough task, but add to it that the Rams are coached by Jeff Fisher (and his terrible mustache) and quarterbacked by rookie Jared Goff. While Goff has made some good throws in his first two starts, no rookie quarterback plays well against Bill Belichick defenses. Speaking of Belichick defenses… after a rough start to the season, and the shipping off of Jamie Collins, this New England defense is coming into its own, giving up just 17 points per game over their last 2. I don’t see a chance for this reeling Rams squad. Bet the house.

Denver Broncos at Jacksonville Jaguars: I can’t believe I just put the Jaguars in bold, going up against this former Super Bowl winning Broncos squad. But hey, it’s the high-risk moneyline for a reason, folks. But seriously, there are real reasons I like Jacksonville to upset. 1. Last time Paxton Lynch Played – against the Atlanta Falcons (one of the league’s worst defenses) – it became clear that he’s not ready to go this season. Although the numbers weren’t incredibly horrible (1 TD to 1 INT), he looked scared out their. 2. The Jaguars, unknown to many, are a top 10 total defense, and they sit at 12th against the run, and 6th against the pass. This will be a much taller task than the Falcons for Lynch. 3. Blake Bortles has improved from terrible to mediocre in his last 4 games, throwing for 8 TDs to 4 INTs. If he takes care of the ball on Sunday, it’ll be good enough to beat the Lynch-led Broncos.

About Matthew Jarecki (196 Articles)
Student at Northern Arizona University. Beginning my sports writing career with Outside the League

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