The Vegas 3: Week 10

Find out who to bet, and how in this week’s Vegas 3

Don’t listen to your mom. Gambling is healthy and wholesome. Here at OTL, we advocate putting your hard earned money straight into a sports book. We’ll even give you the lowdown on who to bet, and how.


by Matthew Jarecki

Key Terms

Moneyline – Who will win the game outright.

Spread – How many points a team will lose or win by. -3 means a team is favored by 3 points, while +3 means a team is favored to lose by three. When betting the spread, you are betting on a team to win or lose by more or less than Vegas says.

Parlay – Combining 2 or more bets to increase the total payout. Parlay’s are risky, because all bets must win in order to win the parlay.


The Parlay:

week-10-parlayAs always, we’re starting out with our 3 team, low risk, moneyline parlay. We combined 3 sure-fire moneyline bets, which would individually give you less than a 1 to 1 return, to instead give you a little more than a 1 to 1 return. As a result, you can count on doubling your money by the end of the week Here’s why we chose these games to bet. Winners are in bold.

Miami Dolphins at San Diego Chargers: This is an obvious W for San Diego, and your wallet. Listen, Miami’s gone on a nice little 3 game winning streak, but all of those wins came at home, and this week they’ll be traveling across country to visit a red hot San Diego team. Here are 3 reasons you can trust this pick: 1. San Diego is averaging 29 points per game over their last four games: Tannehill can’t keep up, and he’ll throw a couple INTs trying. 2. Jay Ajayi is the key to Miami’s offense, but stopping the run is San Diego’s strength. Ajayi will look human this week. 3. The Chargers have only lost 1 out of 4 home games this year, while Miami has lost every road game of the season. You think they’re picking up their first road W against Philip Rivers? Me either.

Seattle Seahawks at New England Patriots: This won’t be a blowout, but Seattle has a  major disadvantage coming into this game against the league’s best squad. Coming off a short week (they played on MNF), and flying across country spells trouble for any squad in the NFL. There are some other factors that give New England the edge, too. Tom Brady has such an advantage – in a league that’s getting younger by the year – with his years of experience, combined with his maintenance of his physical ability. He’s still the better quarterback than Wilson. He’ll be throwing against a defense that’s given up 20 points a game in the last four weeks. The Legion of Boom isn’t what it used to be. Not to mention, the Patriots are well rested, coming out of a bye week, and they’re coached by a guy named Bill Belichick – ever heard of him?

Kansas City Chiefs at Carolina Panthers: The Chiefs aren’t really great at anything right now. They don’t pass the ball particularly well, they don’t play very good defense, and they don’t score a whole bunch of points. They do, however, have one of the league’s greatest assets in Andy Reid, who continues to keep his slightly-above-average teams in the playoff picture. Andy’s great at wearing defenses down with his horizontal running game and bubble screens, and most teams don’t have the linebackers or D-line to catch up. The Panthers have Luke Kuechly and Thomas Davis, though, and  they’ll put an end to all that dink and dunk nonsense. Carolina boasts a top 3 run defense. On the flip-side, Carolina should be able to do what they please offensively against Kansas City’s 21st ranked defense that’s giving up 124 rushing yards per game. The nail in the coffin? Both Kansas City’s losses have come on the road this year. They’ll pick up their third this week.


The Spread:

spread week 10.pngBetting the spread is not about who will win the game, it’s about who will cover. This week, we only felt that one team had a a good enough probability of covering their respective spread to bet them: the Seattle Seahawks

Seattle Seahawks at New England Patriots: It’s a good day when you get the Seahawks favored to lose by more than a touchdown. Yes, the Patriots will win this game, but it won’t be by more than 7 points. This week Vegas gave us 7.5, meaning that even if Seattle does lose by a whole touchdown, you win. This Seahawks team is flat-out good, and Pete Carrol – the second best coach in the league – always has his teams ready to play in big games like this. The key stat in this one? Over their last 24 games, Seattle has lost by more than 6 points only once. Bet the damn house, folks.

 

 


High-Risk, Low-Risk Moneylines:

moneyline-week-10We like to put a large portion of our money into a low-risk moneyline bet (which will not payout much), and a small portion of our money into a high-risk moneyline bet (which will payout well). This week we’re investing a lot in the Green Bay Packers, and a little in the Philadelphia Eagles

Green Bay Packers at Tennessee Titans: Despite their recent losses, and the major heat Green Bay has taken in the media, they’ve still scored 28 points per game over the last 3 weeks. This week, Green Bay gets back to winning against the league’s 21st ranked pass defense in Tennessee. Tennessee will not be able to move the ball efficiently against Green Bay’s top ranked rush defense, and Mariota isn’t ready to carry his team just yetGreen Bay wins this one because they have the better quarterback, the better head coach, and the better defense. Easy money.

Atlanta Falcons at Philadelphia Eagles: It’s the high-risk moneyline for a reason, folks. Atlanta’s been nothing short of spectacular on offense, and Philly has sputtered in recent weeks. But let’s put wins and losses aside for a second, and look solely at the way these teams match up. Philadelphia’s only given up 23 total points over 3 home games this year, and they’re second in the league in time of possession. That tells me that Atlanta won’t have the ball as much as they’re used to, and when they do, they’ll have trouble scoring touchdowns. The key factor in this one: Carson Wentz will need to have his offense humming, and with 5 TDs to 2 INTs at home, facing Atlanta’s 30th ranked pass defense, he could have a big day.

About Matthew Jarecki (196 Articles)
Student at Northern Arizona University. Beginning my sports writing career with Outside the League

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