The Vegas 3: Week 9

Find out who to bet, and how in this week’s Vegas 3

Don’t listen to your mom. Gambling is healthy and wholesome. Here at OTL, we advocate putting your hard earned money straight into a sports book. We’ll even give you the lowdown on who to bet, and how.


by Matthew Jarecki

Key Terms

Moneyline – Who will win the game outright.

Spread – How many points a team will lose or win by. -3 means a team is favored by 3 points, while +3 means a team is favored to lose by three. When betting the spread, you are betting on a team to win or lose by more or less than Vegas says.

Parlay – Combining 2 or more bets to increase the total payout. Parlay’s are risky, because all bets must win in order to win the parlay.


The Parlay:

parlay-week-9 As always, we’re starting out with our 3 team, low risk, moneyline parlay. We combined 3 sure-fire moneyline bets, which would individually give you less than a 1 to 1 return, to instead give you a little more than a 1 to 1 return. As a result, you can count on doubling your money by the end of the week Here’s why we chose these games to bet. Winners are in bold.

Dallas Cowboys at Cleveland Browns: There are three reasons I love Dallas in this game. 1. It’s the Browns… they’re 0-8 on the season, they’re the youngest team in the league, and they’re playing for paychecks and pride at this point. 2. Dallas is averaging 4.9 yards per carry, and they’re going against the league’s 4th worst rushing defense. 3. Dak Prescott is playing for the starting gig in Dallas. I don’t usually take teams coming off a big win, but Dak isn’t taking his foot off the gas in a match up that could cost him playing time.

Carolina Panthers at LA Rams: I know you’re scared to bet this game after Carolina’s dreadful start to the season, but I promise Carolina will put money in your pocket. Cam Newton’s thrown 3 TD’s and 1 INT in his last 3 games, and Jonathan Stewart is back in full form: he opens up this offense. Carolina will score points, there’s no question about that, but the defining factor in this game will be the Rams’ inability to run the ball, and Case Keenum’s turnovers. Todd Gurley is averaging a measly 3 yards per carry thus far, and the Panthers only give up a league-best 3.3 yards per carry. That means Case Keenum will have to throw the ball, and with 10 INT’s already this year, Carolina will feast.

Buffalo Bills at Seattle Seahawks: This game won’t be as close as the media’s telling you it will be. The Bills went on a nice little 4 game winning streak against Jacoby Brisset, Case Keenum, Colin Kaepernick, and an Arizona team that never travels well. Since then, teams are scoring an  average of 34.5 points per game on the Bills. LeSean Mccoy says he’s healthy, but hamstring injuries are some of the trickiest in sports. If I could place a bet on him leaving this game I would. This Buffalo team literally runs through Mccoy, and even if he is healthy, the Seahawks only give up 3.4 yards per rush. Oh, and their pass defense ain’t bad either, giving up a 9th ranked 230 yards per game, with 5 INT’s on the year. You think Tyrod Taylor’s going to move the ball on the “Legion of Boom”? Me either.  In conclusion, the Seahawks only give up 17 points per game at home, where they haven’t lost thus far.


The Spread:

spread-week-9Betting the spread is not about who will win the game, it’s about who will cover. This week, we only felt that one team had a a good enough probability of covering their respective spread to bet them: the Detroit Lions

Detroit Lions at Minnesota Vikings: I feel so good about this pick. Yes, that Vikings defense is absurd, and I love Mike Zimmer, but this team lost their offensive coordinator earlier this week, and that O-line is a mess. Did you watch the Eagles and Bears man-handle those guys the last two weeks? Well, Detroit is tied for 7th with 19 sacks on the year, so it ain’t getting any easier for Minnesota’s boys up front. Averaging just 10 points per game over the last 2 weeks, I just don’t see the Vikings being able to keep up with Matthew Stafford, who’s thrown for 9 TD’s and 0 INT’s in his last 4 games. Put your money on this game, people.

 

 


High-Risk, Low-Risk Moneylines:

moneyline-week-9We like to put a large portion of our money into a low-risk moneyline bet (which will not payout much), and a small portion of our money into a high-risk moneyline bet (which will payout well). This week we’re investing a lot in Kansas City, and a little in the New York Jets

Jacksonville Jaguars at Kansas City Chiefs: This game could get ugly, and fast. It doesn’t bother me at all that Alex Smith and Spencer Ware are gone. Andy Reid has mastered the dink and dunk offense, and we’ve seen Nick Foles succeed in Chip Kelly’s version of that already. Kansas City will be just fine playing at home (where they haven’t lost yet) against a Jags team that’s dead and gone. Gus Bradley is proving that he is, and should be, a career coordinator — not a head coach. Kansas City will control this game with their suffocating rushing attack, and Blake Bortles will turn the ball over against a Kansas City defense that leads the league in interceptions.

New York Jets at Miami Dolphins: This is game screams value pick. The Dolphins are favored after defeating a Steelers squad led by an injured Big Ben, and beating up an over-rated Bills squad the last two weeks. Jay Ajayi had everything to do with those victories. This week he’ll go against a top 5 run defense that’s giving up only 3.3 yards per carry (T-1st). The Jets have monsters up front, but that’s not the only reason I like them in this game. While the Dolphins were riding Ajayi to victories, the Jets turned to Matt Forte, giving him the ball 55 times on their way to a 2 game winning streak. This week he’ll go against the league’s 27th ranked rushing defense, giving up an average of 4.4 yards per carry. The Jets have the advantage at quarterback, on defense and at head coach.

About Matthew Jarecki (196 Articles)
Student at Northern Arizona University. Beginning my sports writing career with Outside the League

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