The Vegas 3: Week 8

Don’t listen to your mom. Gambling is healthy and wholesome. Here at OTL, we advocate putting your hard earned money straight into a sports book. We’ll even give you the lowdown on who to bet, and how.

by Matthew Jarecki

Key Terms

Moneyline – Who will win the game outright.

Spread – How many points a team will lose or win by. -3 means a team is favored by 3 points, while +3 means a team is favored to lose by three. When betting the spread, you are betting on a team to win or lose by more or less than Vegas says.

Parlay – Combining 2 or more bets to increase the total payout. Parlay’s are risky, because all bets must win in order to win the parlay.

The Parlay:

parlay-week-8As always, we’re starting out with our 3 team, low risk, moneyline parlay. We combined 3 sure-fire moneyline bets, which would individually give you less than a 1 to 1 return, to instead give you a little more than a 1 to 1 return. As a result, you can count on doubling your money by the end of the week Here’s why we chose these games to bet. Winners are in bold.

Minnesota at Chicago: I love this game for 3 reasons: 1. Minnesota is very good team coming off of a bad loss… they’ll be ready to hunt against the Bears’ beat-up offensive line. 2. Jay Cutler is turnover prone, and this Minnesota defense is 2nd in the league with 9 takeaways already this season. 3. The Vikings have a lot to play for in this bounce back game. Chicago’s players know full-well that their season is over.

 San Diego at Denver: Don’t let that week 6 Chargers victory fool you: Gary Kubiak wasn’t coaching the Broncos that week due to health issues, and Mike McCoy was on the verge of losing his job. Now, after two emotional victories, San Diego will be resting on their laurels against a Denver squad looking for revenge. Denver’s better at almost every position group, they’re playing at home, and Devontae Booker is ready to explode in his first start of the season.

Philadelphia at Dallas: I love Dallas in this one. Philadelphia put on a show last week at home vs one of the league’s best. What they didn’t tell you was that Minnesota was missing both starting tackles, and has struggled running the ball all year. It was a recipe for disaster. The Eagles are not the same team when they’re not at home, having lost 2 of 3 this year on the road. The Eagles will lose this game because they give up 4.5 yards per rush (facing the league’s best O-line/running back set), Dak Prescott won’t turn the ball over (1 INT all season), and because Carson Wentz is hitting a rookie wall.

The Spread:


Betting the spread is not about who will win the game, it’s about who will cover. This week, we only felt that one team had a a good enough probability of covering their respective spread to bet them: the Oakland Raiders

Oakland at Tampa Bay: This is the most beautiful spread of the week, people. You might be saying to yourself, “Oakland’s on the road against a red hot Tampa Bay team”, and if you’re thinking that, you’re wrong. Oakland stayed in Florida this week, after playing Jacksonville in week 7. Tampa Bay had to travel all the way back east from California. Tampa Bay’s feeling pretty good after beating Derek Anderson’s Panthers, and Colin Kaepernick’s 49ers. Those aren’t real wins, folks. Listen, Jameis Winston has 9 INT’s in his first 6 games this year, and Oakland (even with that shotty defense) has 7 INT’s already: that’s a mismatch. Oakland has the better quarterback, the much better turnover differential, (+8 to -3), and they’re the better rested team. Here’s the cherry on top: Oakland has won all 4 of their away games this year, and Tampa hasn’t won at home yet. Bet the house.

The High-Risk, Low-Risk Moneylines:

week-7-moneylinesWe like to put a large portion of our money into a low-risk moneyline bet (which will not payout much), and a small portion of our money into a high-risk moneyline bet (which will payout well). For the second straight week, we have New England winning as our low risk bet, and New Orleans winning as out high risk bet. Here’s why:

New England at Buffalo: It’s just really hard to beat the Patriots twice in one season. This week won’t be any different. Tom Brady is back, and he’s the best quarterback in the game. Bill Belichick is angry, and he’s the best coach in the game. The Bills’ run game has carried them to 4 wins this year, but LeSean McCoy will be limited (if he plays at all), and New England gives up a stingy 3.8 yards per rush. I expect a blowout.

Seattle at New Orleans: Call me crazy, but I think the Saints have a real shot at upsetting a tired Seahawks team. Listen, Seattle is on the road for the 2nd straight week, and they just played a full extra quarter in Arizona. Not to mention Russell Wilson is more banged up than you think. If Seattle can’t establish the run, and control the clock against this high-flying Saints team, an upset will occur.

About Matthew Jarecki (346 Articles)
Student at Northern Arizona University. Beginning my sports writing career with Outside the League

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  1. NFL Week 8: Unfiltered Preview – Outside the League

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