The Vegas 3: Week 7

Don’t listen to your mom. Gambling is healthy and wholesome. Here at OTL, we advocate putting your hard earned money straight into a sports book. We’ll even give you the lowdown on who to bet, and how.

by Matthew Jarecki

Key Terms

Moneyline – Who will win the game outright.

Spread – How many points a team will lose or win by. -3 means a team is favored by 3 points, while +3 means a team is favored to lose by three. When betting the spread, you are betting on a team to win or lose by more or less than Vegas says.

Parlay – Combining 2 or more bets to increase the total payout. Parlay’s are risky, because all bets must win in order to win the parlay.

The Parlay:

week-7-parlayAs always, we’re starting out with our 3 team, low risk, money line parlay. We combined 3 sure-fire moneyline bets, which would individually give you less than a 1 to 1 return, to instead give you a little more than a 1 to 1 return. As a result, you can count on doubling your money by the end of Week 6. Here’s why we chose these games to bet. Winners are in bold.

Houston at Denver. –  After tough losses to two of the league’s best offenses, this Denver defense is ready to feast on a quarterback they know all too well: Brock Osweiler. Brock has 8 TD’s and 8 interceptions this year, and will be facing off against a Denver secondary with 5 interceptions already. Houston’s only shot in this one is Lamar Miller, but you know who else knows that? Denver.

San Diego at Atlanta – Atlanta jut went on a 2 game road trip against the league’s two best pass defenses in Denver and Seattle. They could barely be stopped. This week they’re returning home against the league’s 24th ranked pass defense. San Diego is a west coast team traveling across the country, and they’re coming off a feel good win vs Denver, and they’ve been depleted by injuries. Atlanta will put on a show.

Minnesota at Philadelphia – Everybody, including Vegas, thinks this game will be very close, verging on the Eagles upsetting the Vikings. I don’t see it. If the Patriots weren’t playing a Big Ben-less Steelers team, Minnesota over Philly would be my low risk moneyline of the week. Did anybody watch Carson Wentz last week against a mediocre Washington defense? Teams now have 5 weeks of film on the guy, and it ain’t getting any easier against Minnesota, who has a league-best +11 turnover differential, a top 10 run and pass defense, and an offense that doesn’t turn the ball over. Come on, man.

The Spread:

week-7-spread
Betting the spread is not about who will win the game, it’s about who will cover. This week, we only felt that one team had a a good enough probability of covering their respective spread to bet them: The Buffalo Bills

Buffalo at Miami – Holy smokes I can’t believe I’m getting this Bills team at only -3. Miami played one good game against a wildly inconsistent Pittsburgh team, and they’re feeling good about themselves — so it’s the perfect time to bet against them. Buffalo is the league’s best rushing offense, their defense is steadily ascending into one of the NFL’s top 10, and they have a  +8 turnover differential. In fact, they’ve only turned the ball over 4 times all season (3rd in the league). Take those numbers, and consider that Buffalo is playing a Miami squad that’s 31st against the run, has a -5 turnover differential, and has the youngest head coach in the league. This is a total mismatch — bet your house that Buffalo wins by more than 3.

The High-Risk, Low-Risk Moneylines:

week-7-moneylines

We like to put a large portion of our money into a low-risk moneyline bet (which will not payout much), and a small portion of our money into a high-risk moneyline bet (which will payout well). Here’s why we chose the Patriots to win as our low-risk bet, and the Saints to win as our high-risk bet.

New England at Pittsburgh – This is the best investment you’ll make all year, folks. Since Brady’s been back, New England’s averaged 34 points per game, and they’re facing a Steelers defense that’s allowing 394 yards per game (28th). Not to mention the Steelers have a -2 turnover differential. Oh yeah, and Big Ben is out, leaving Landry Jones with the keys to this offense. Brady’s still mad, and he’ll take it out on that dreadful Steelers secondary while Bill Belichick takes care of Jones. New England keeps on rolling.

New Orleans at Kansas City – I’m not sure why Kansas city is such a heavy favorite in this game. Their defense isn’t what it used to be, Alex Smith is still limited, and they’re facing Drew Brees, who still has the ability to carry his team to victories. Here’s what I think Vegas sees: Kansas City got that running game rolling last week against an Oakland team that’s similar to New Orleans, and it worked out heavily in the Chiefs’ favor. Here’s why I think New Orleans has a chance to rewrite the script: Kansas City has a hard time keeping up with high-powered offenses if they lose the lead early, as was shown in the Pittsburgh game. This is a high-risk bet for a reason, but New Orleans has a real shot to outscore this dink and dunk Chiefs team.

 

 

 

 

About Matthew Jarecki (196 Articles)
Student at Northern Arizona University. Beginning my sports writing career with Outside the League

1 Comment on The Vegas 3: Week 7

  1. So Buffalo’s real thing this year? Not sure I am ready to put my money on them yet!

    Like

Leave a Reply

Fill in your details below or click an icon to log in:

WordPress.com Logo

You are commenting using your WordPress.com account. Log Out / Change )

Twitter picture

You are commenting using your Twitter account. Log Out / Change )

Facebook photo

You are commenting using your Facebook account. Log Out / Change )

Google+ photo

You are commenting using your Google+ account. Log Out / Change )

Connecting to %s

%d bloggers like this: